Jack and Sadie Diamond Futurities · 3.10.08

This weekend the best BC-bred juveniles will race in the two big Hastings futurities: the Sadie Diamond Futurity for fillies on Saturday, and the Jack Diamond Futurity for colts and geldings on Sunday.

Jack Diamond was a successful businessman (Pacific Meat Company), philanthropist (Variety Club), and community leader (chancellor of Simon Fraser University, fund-raiser for the 1954 British Empire Games). He was also the first president of the BC Jockey Club, and a major owner and breeder from the 1930s almost to his death in 2001 (more here, here, and here). His wife Sadie was also heavily involved in local charities and community initiatives.

For the Sadie Diamond Futurity (Race 7 on Saturday), I have to like P.S. Good N Ready — mind you, so does almost everybody else. She won the BC Cup Debutante in August, finished a strong second to Florida import What R the Odds in the Lassie, then had an easy score in an allowance race three weeks ago.

Frequent commenter hereabouts Tim Yatcak also likes P.S. Good N Ready, with Fashionable Affair his second choice. He also suggests keeping an eye on Seashell, writing that she “will be out front to catch and might hold on for part”.

I’ve championed El Sinaloense for a couple of months now, and I see little reason to change heading into Sunday’s Jack Diamond Futurity (Race 9). He made his first big splash in July by earning a Beyer speed figure of 92 in the Ladnesian. He’s won three more stakes since then, and although his BSFs have steadily declined his total pace ratings (by my calculation) remain strong. His win in the BC Cup Nursery was actually more impressive than the Ladnesian by that measurement (TPR 178 vs. 173.5).

Many of the local handicappers are keying on Almost Time’s BSF of 91 and 13-length winning margin in his maiden special weight score last month. That, plus a 5-pound break in the weights, have them picking him to end El Sinaloense’s winning streak. While impressive, Almost Time’s TPR for that race wasn’t better than what the favourite has earned in his recent wins, which also came against tougher opposition. Finally, if the track comes up wet (as it might considering the weather forecast), El Sinaloense gains another slight edge, as he’s already proved himself in the mud, while Almost Time has not. Still, the two of them are definitely the class of the field — it might even be worth boxing them in an exacta.

Tim Yatcak also suggests a box, putting the top two horses together with the #5 horse Diamond Quest. He also prefers to look at pace and internal fractions (I’ve learned about them from him) rather than speed figures, but his own calculations give Almost Time a slight edge. Also (he writes):

ALWAYS one has to see how these do in all three fractions as the race MIGHT wind up in speed duel between the two favorites…. HORSES with moves in TWO fractions, the 2nd and 3rd can get up there whenever the front end is softened up… but these two [El Sinaloense and Almost Time] might just run away from the rest.

Enjoy the races!

Update: The Sadie Diamond Futurity went according to form. As predicted, P.S. Good N Ready won easily, stalking the pace early, then took over coming around the final turn. Also as predicted, Seashell set the early pace, and had enough class to finish a strong second.

The Jack Diamond Futurity, however, was another story. El Sinaloense pressed the early pace, but then faded badly after 1/2 mile to finish seventh. I found out afterwards that the few days rest I wrote about earlier ended up being almost two weeks. Whatever was bothering him after the CTHS Sales Stakes wasn’t cured by that time in pasture — he ran like a horse that needed a rest, according to my sources. The second favourite, Almost Time, scored a solid win. Of the other horses that we figured, Dream Prospect set the early pace but soon faded, while Millwright and Diamond Quest were never significant factors. And that, folks, is why they actually run these races, instead of automatically giving the winner’s cheque to the pre-race favourite.

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