Thanksgiving weekend races at Hastings · 11.10.08

Saturday: Ballerina Stakes ($100,000, F&M 3yo+, 1 1/8 miles)

This race is shaping up as practically the local equivalent of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff Ladies’ Classic, featuring some of the best fillies and mares in Western Canada. The entry of Holy Nova and Lady Raj are the 8/5 morning-line favourites, while Against the Sky, who beat both of them in the Delta Colleen three weeks ago, is 4/1, and Tanika, who finished second to Holy Nova in Alberta earlier this year, is 3/1. Top three-year-olds Lecturing Lynn and Blue Sky Holiday will be facing their elders for the first time.

Against the Sky pretty much stole the Delta Colleen, grabbing the lead early and slowing the pace enough to conserve her energy for the late stages. Opposing jockeys won’t make that same mistake again. That being said, I still like the big race-mare. Although she would probably do better at a longer distance (she easily won the BC Cup Marathon), I’ll make her one of my picks, along with the Holy Nova / Lady Raj entry. My friend Tim has a slightly different take: “Ballerina on a fast track to the entry (1,1A) or the 4 Tanika… Against the sky won’t get such an easy lead again with Lecturing Lynn there who could hold on for a part”.

Sunday: Premier’s Championship ($100,000, 3yo+, 1 3/8 miles)

If the Ballerina is like the Distaff, then the Premier’s Championship has to be considered the Hastings version of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. This race may very well decide the local Horse of the Year title. Furthermore, depending on who wins it, the Premier’s might play a role in deciding Sovereign Award for top older horse in Canada.

The local favourites will be the veteran Spaghetti Mouse and B.C. Derby winner Krazy Coffee, both riding winning streaks. However, the betting favourite will almost certainly be 2-time Sovereign winner True Metropolitan, back at Hastings for the first time since setting a track record in the George Royal back in May. Since then he’s suffered four straight tough loses, including the Longacres Mile where he tore a hoof, and the Speed to Spare at Northlands where he tired in the stretch and came back with his lungs full of mucus. Even so, True Metropolitan remains as game as ever — he managed to earn high Beyers and pace ratings despite his problems in those races — and now that he’s fit again he deserves to be the top pick.

Chronic under-achiever Texas Wildcatter might get some play at the windows — he’s come close against both Spaghetti Mouse and Krazy Koffee, and is now carrying only 109 pounds compared to 126 and 121 for those two rivals — but I still think of him as a “sucker horse”. Rosberg, Krazy Koffee, and Spaghetti Mouse are the only ones who come close to True Metropolitan in speed figures, pace ratings, and that intangible “class”. Any of them could take the race if the champ isn’t really as fit as he seems to be, although “Koffee” is facing older horses for the first time (always a big test) and is getting no break in the weights. Look for “True Met” to set the pace, with “the Mouse” chasing him — Krazy Koffee and, especially, Rosberg will close strongly. My picks: True Metropolitan and Rosberg. Tim sez: “the big horse (True Met) should control the pace”.

Monday: Starter Handicap — Marathon Series #4 ($26,000, 3yo+, 1 1/2 miles)

You knew that I’d get back to the stayers again, didn’t you? [smile]

Lord Vic is the local endurance specialist, and will likely be one of the favourites. The other one to look for is Beau Run, who won three straight races at Northlands last month, including starter handicaps at 1 3/8 and 1 5/8 miles.

Good luck!

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What do you think?

  1. The Ballerina completely changed complexion when Lecturing Lynn broke down coming out of the clubhouse turn. Fuentes was smart and kept Against the Sky wide of the trouble and went on to an easy win without too much pace in the race. Sad end to a young, well bred filly.

    — Dr. Timothy Yatcak · Oct 12, 12:32 AM · #

  2. The long race is much more about the stayers, as you call them, and as good as the Mouse is, there will be no value. Krazy is the best value and True Met is a consistent campaigner who gets a big weight concession.

    — Dr. Timothy Yatcak · Oct 12, 10:54 AM · #

  3. Vintner and Chivago look best at the marathon today.

    — Dr. Timothy Yatcak · Oct 13, 12:05 PM · #

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