Stayers' Watch: Breeders' Cup Marathon, Breeders' Cup Turf · 24.10.08
The Unofficial Champion Stayer Award won’t necessarily be decided this weekend at Santa Anita — there are, after all, at least a half-dozen stayers’ races still to be run before the end of the year, such as the Gallant Fox handicap and the Hollywood Turf Cup. But a victory by one of the current leaders in either the Breeders’ Cup Marathon or the Breeders’ Cup Turf might give them an insurmountable lead in the standings.
As a new race in the Breeders’ Cup schedule, the 1 1/2-mile Marathon is officially ungraded, and so according to the Stayers’ Award points system would only be worth 4 points to the winner. However, as I’ve argued before, as a Breeders’ Cup race it is considered de facto a year-end championship, and so should be considered equivalent to a Grade 1 race.
As for the race itself, although I am obviously a big fan of the concept, I’m not expecting much. The class of the field seems to be the English invader Sixties Icon, who boasts several recent Group 3 wins at this distance, as well as the 2006 St. Leger at 1 3/4+ miles — albeit all on turf, although he does most of his training on synthetics. Personally I’m hoping for a good effort from Big Booster, winner of the San Juan Capistrano and Gallant Man handicaps earlier this year — but as a confirmed closer he will need a good early pace to set things up for him. But there is very little early speed, except for early pressers Zappa, Booyah, and possibly Add Heat — and their opening fractions are likely to be slow. If one of them gets loose on the lead, running easy early fractions, one of them just might steal it — Zappa being most likely, as he is the only horse out of the three potential pacesetters to have ever gone this distance. Otherwise, look for Sixties Icon, Big Booster, or possibly Cedar Mountain to come on in the latter stages.
The BC Turf, also run at 1 1/2 miles, is traditionally a “supporting feature” on Breeders’ Cup day, coming immediately before the BC Classic — there is obviously no question that it is a genuine Grade 1 race. As always in the Turf there is a strong European contingent, including Soldier of Fortune, 2006 BC Turf winner (and conqueror of Classic favourite Curlin in the Man O’ War Stakes) Red Rocks, and 2008 St. Leger winner Conduit. Soldier of Fortune is the favourite, based on a strong 3rd-place showing in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and two previous Group 1 wins including last year’s Irish Derby. The problem for these horses will be the turns, which like most North American courses are tighter than are common on European racecourses.
Grand Couturier comes in to the race with two straight Grade 1 wins, and is the class of the North American entries. While both Better Talk Now and Dancing Forever have earned better speed figures at this distance, both those horses have tailed-off substantially, while Grand Couturier earned a 109 Beyer, his best-ever, in the Turf Classic. If Soldier of Fortune can’t handle the turns, look for Grand Couturier or Red Rocks to be on or near the lead as the field enters the stretch.
Update: As expected the early pace in the Marathon, set by Booyah and Zappa, was practically standardbred time: :50.08 for 1/2-mile, 1:18.71 for 3/4-mile. They picked up the pace slightly and posted 1:41.65 for the mile — but by then it was too late, as the trailers were all in striking position and had plenty of run left. On the final turn the largely-unheralded Muhannak unleashed a rally that took him to the front and allowed him to hold off the fast-closing Church Service by a head. Big Booster finished third, while favourite Sixties Icon got caught in traffic on the turn and didn’t find running room until it was too late. Final time: 2:28.24 (new track record for the Santa Anita synthetic surface) — the final 1/2-mile was 3 1/2 seconds faster than the opening half.
In the Turf, 3-year-old Conduit beat his elders decisively, finishing 1 1/2 lengths ahead of Eagle Mountain in a stakes record time of 2:23.42. Red Rock Canyon, brought in mainly as a pacesetter for favoured stablemate Soldier of Fortune, indeed set the early pace. Soldier of Fortune took over after a mile, but was in turn overtaken by Eagle Mountain on the turn. Meanwhile Conduit was flying, and coming down the stretch would not be denied. Long-shot Dancing Forever got third, just ahead of Soldier of Fortune. Grand Couturier and Red Rocks finished last and second-to-last, respectively.
Champion Stayer Award standings — update:
- Grand Couturier — 20
- Big Booster — 16 (10)
- Champs Elysees — 16
- Church Service — 12 (10)
- Warning Zone — 12
- Interpatation — 11
- Muhannak — 10 (10)
- Da’ Tara — 10 (10)
- Marsh Side — 10
- Conduit — 10
- Dancing Forever — 10
Despite his last-place finish, Grand Couturier still leads the standings on the strength of his two Grade 1 wins. That last-place finish today did him no favours, however, and at least a half-dozen other horses on the leader board could still overtake him, assuming they stay in training.
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