Stayers' Watch: Hollywood Turf Cup · 5.12.08

$250,000 Hollywood Turf Cup (gr. IT), 1 1/2 Miles:

  1. Church Service
  2. Summer Survivor
  3. Winchester
  4. Champs Elysees
  5. Obrigado
  6. Mr. Chairman
  7. High Heel Sneakers
  8. Black Mamba
  9. Rush Rush

The last Grade 1 stayers’ race of the year brings together some familiar names (Church Service, Champs Elysees, Obrigado) with others that are new to our Stayers’ Watch series.

Based on past performances, expect outsider Summer Survivor to set the early pace — however, he has never raced at this distance, and in fact has not shown any ability beyond 1 1/16 miles. The 3-year-old Winchester should take over after 1/2 mile, but I question his ability to last beyond 10 furlongs, especially off the strong early pace that I expect from Summer Survivor. Winchester boasts two wins and a 2nd-place in his career at 10f, while his three previous races at 12f, including the Breeders’ Cup Turf, saw him way back at the finish. That scenario sets things up perfectly for Champs Elysees, the strongest closer in the field by far. Assuming he gets enough running room I expect him to come through at the finish. New Zealand-bred mare Black Mamba has also demonstrated a good finishing kick, and might get up for a share of the purse. Church Service finished impressively in the BC Marathon and so deserves consideration here — however, considering the pace scenario he might not be close enough early, and doesn’t seem to have the strong finish that the others do.

Update: Heh….

Champs Elysees (GB)	5.60	3.20	2.60
Obrigado (FR)			14.40	7.00
Church Service				3.40

Interesting how it was the “familiar names” that I mentioned earlier that took the top three places. Summer Survivor was a late scratch, so the pace was slower than expected, which should have benefited Winchester at the expense of Champs Elysees. But Winchester tried to stay with pacesetter Mr. Chairman, and eventually faded to finish sixth — meanwhile the winner saved ground on the rail, took over at the top of the stretch, and had plenty left to hold off Obrigado. Church Service benefited from the moderate early pace and had enough of a kick to get third. Time: 2:27.71 on “firm” turf.

Champion Stayer Award standings — update:

  1. Champs Elysees — 26
  2. Grand Couturier — 20
  3. Church Service — 18 (10)
  4. Big Booster — 16 (10)
  5. Warning Zone — 12
  6. Interpatation — 11
  7. Muhannak — 10 (10)
  8. Da’ Tara — 10 (10)
  9. Marsh Side — 10
  10. Conduit — 10
  11. Dancing Forever — 10

There are only three more stayers’ races to be run this year (the La Prevoyante, the W.L. McKnight, and the Gallant Fox handicaps) — the fourth, Woodbine’s traditional end-of-the-year marathon the Valedictory Stakes, was cancelled when extreme cold weather forced today’s race card to be abandoned.

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What do you think?

  1. Apples oranges as stamina on the lawn is alive and well but goes wanting on the main track in North America.

    — Dr. Timothy Yatcak · Dec 8, 10:40 AM · #

  2. The last great dirt stayer was probably Easy Goer — winner of the Belmont and the Gold Cup at 1 1/2m in 1989.

    — E-man · Dec 9, 12:20 AM · #

  3. I think Afleet Alex WOULD have been had he stayed around and Street Sense had the tools just not the opportunity.

    — Dr. Timothy Yatcak · Dec 9, 10:31 AM · #

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