Your Kentucky Derby winner: Dunkirk · 1.05.09

So I sat down last night with the Derby PPs and Brohamer’s Modern Pace Handicapping and did some ol’ fashoned figurin’ — literally, as I left my calculator at home. I had to do all calculations by hand, so take the following with a grain of salt in case my math was off:

Horse to beat: DUNKIRK
— best total velocity (Florida Derby): 166.57
— median: 67.58 (right where my friend Tim likes it)
— best 2nd fraction velocity: 57.52 fps

Having run only three races, and none as a 2yo, as Dunkirk has, isn’t as big a problem as it used to be, as few of the other horses in the Derby field have much more experience. However, if it is a factor that can’t be overcome, the two others to look for are PAPA CLEM (his median in the Arkansas Derby was over 68, but makes up for that with the second-highest total velocity and a good 2nd fraction) and PIONEEROF THE NILE (good %median and total velocity, but I didn’t try to correct for the California synthetics, so take that for what it’s worth…).

If the track turns to mud (the forecast for Louisville tomorrow is for rain and even thunderstorms), look also for the only two horses who’ve proven they can win on an off track: FRIESAN FIRE (this year’s Louisiana Derby) or DESERT PARTY (last year’s Sanford Stakes).

Remember, you read it here first.

Update: Whisky Tango Foxtrot?!

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What do you think?

  1. Read the chart: it was like a demolition Derby not a K. Derby. There was a buzz in the winner’s circle yesterday as ONE patron on track at Hastings HAD the super on the Derby and wanted CASH not a check. I will keep you posted on what happened. Poor old Dunkirk got bounced around a lot and never overcame it.

    — Dr. Timothy Yatca,k · May 3, 10:27 PM · #

  2. It was reported that Dunkirk grabbed a quarter coming out of the gate and was compromised from then on. TOO Bad.

    — Dr. Timothy Yatcak · May 5, 11:23 AM · #

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