Oaks/Derby Weekend at Hastings · 24.09.09

This Saturday and Sunday will be the biggest weekend of the year for racing fans at Hastings. On Saturday the feature race will be the $125,000 British Columbia Oaks, the year’s big race for 3-year-old fillies. The supporting feature will be the Delta Colleen Handicap for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up, while the rest of the card includes an optional claimer and a maiden special weight for 2-year-olds, and several high-end claiming races.

Here’s my friend Tim’s analysis of the Oaks:

Shippers abound in the Oaks as the 4 (Ochoa) and 5 (La Rocca) appear miles the best and much money will get bet on Tierra del Fuego. Only weakness in either one of the favorites is their tendency to get too far back early and neither having run here, that could be a problem.

Rarely do fillies run away with these contests, but if no one goes with her early in the race, Tierra del Fuego has a much better shot in being around at the end. If pushed, she willl show her weaknesses late. If you compare Tierra’s PACE of Race (pace of the race she ran against), over the last several, she is going backwards. Especially disturbing about Tierra (in this proposed match up) are the declining middle moves (she has pretty much had it her own way the last several without much pressure) so there is not much to go on in her move in the 2nd fraction. But again, alone on the lead make her dangerous. La Rocca has the problem of her best races being over the synthetics (Woodbine and Keeneland) which does NOT transfer well to Hastings. Her move will be strong but maybe too late.

I would watch to see if Ricky Walcott has any mounts on the undercard (Ochoa’s rider) as it always helps a rider to get the “feel” of the track before they ride in a big one. Pedro Alvarado certainly knows how to keep a front runner going, so his being on Tierra del Fuego is a plus, IF he is out there by himself and can slow it down (at least to 1:13 which might be very hard), but if he can get away with that, he can last a lot longer late. La Rocca probably has the best shot with a running style in between these two and leading rider Fernando Perez up. That one’s last Northlands race put her closest to the 2nd call pace.

Sunday’s big race will be the $275,000 British Columbia Derby (G3), but the supporting features will almost certainly attract favourable attention. The Sir Winston Churchill Handicap will showcase the best local older horses, in particular Krazy Koffee, Spaghetti Mouse, and Teide. Immediately after the Derby, the Derby Bar and Grill Express Stakes will not only feature some of the top sprinters around — race-mare Holy Nova will test herself against males, in particular Bank Emblem and Seminole Brave.

I’ll have my own takes on the Oaks, Derby, and hopefully a few of the other races tomorrow.

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What do you think?

  1. Woops! meant to say Ochoa has the style that is the best between the early Tierra, and the late moving La Rocha

    — Dr. Timothy Yatcak · Sep 25, 12:34 PM · #

  2. You actually typed Ochoa in your e-mail, but Perez is riding La Rocca so I thought you meant her — I’ll have to look at your chart again.

    — e-man · Sep 25, 01:49 PM · #

  3. Now the Derby is a tad harder to predict but ONE thing that has come out already is that the New Jersey shipper, Jersey Town, if the past performances are accurate, is NO WHERE on the radar even with Cuthbertson’s magic

    — Dr. Timothy Yatcak · Sep 25, 03:25 PM · #

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