BC Derby Day picks · 26.09.09

Sir Winston Churchill Handicap

Teide has to be considered the class of this field. He’s 3/4 at Hastings this year, and just missed taking the Longacres Mile after a bad trip. According to his pace figures (by my calculations) he has enough early speed to stay in touch with the leaders, and enough stamina to run them down late.

Of the others, Spaghetti Mouse and Emerald Downs shipper Gallon will have the early speed. The “Mouse” is a local favourite, but I think he’s lost a step this year, while Gallon finished far back in the Longacres Mile. Krazy Koffee and Texas Wildcatter will come from well off the pace and chase Teide to the wire. Of these two, “Koffee” is the better closer, even if he isn’t as good as he was last year. I still think of Texas Wildcatter as a “sucker” horse — just good enough to merit attention, but almost always under-performing.

Picks: Teide / Krazy Koffee

Derby Bar and Grill Express Stakes

Top local sprinter Bank Emblem is the deserving morning-line favourite here. However, do not discount Bearrock N Roll, whose pace figures seem to be comparable. Distorted Glamour and Seminole Brave have the best early speed. While the latter will likely be the second choice in the betting, Distorted Glamour, like Bearrock N Roll, presents good figures and showed enough late in his last race to deserve consideration. Holy Nova, the lone female, will likely come on in the late stages but will be too far back early to have much impact.

Picks: Bank Emblem / Bearrock N Roll

British Columbia Derby (G3)

More than half the 9-horse field are shipping into Hastings in pursuit of the Derby’s rich purse ($275,000-added). Of the four from Emerald Downs, my calculations show Noosa Beach and Winning Machine to be the most dangerous. Jersey Town, shipping in from Barclay Tagg’s stable at Monmouth, will likely get a lot of play from the punters, but appears over-rated based on his figures. Of the locals, Tommy Danzigger has by far the best chance to reach the winner’s circle, especially if he maintains the form he showed in last month’s BC Cup Stellar’s Jay and the Canadian Derby.

Picks: Winning Machine / Tommy Danzigger

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