Stayers' Watch: Breeders' Cup Marathon and Turf preview · 4.11.09

Breeders’ Cup Marathon

Friday, November 6 — $500,000 — 3yo+ — 1 3/4 Miles

 PP.  Horse / Jockey / Odds

  1. Black Astor / Alex Solis / 12-1
  2. Muhannak (IRE) / Ryan Moore / 12-1
  3. Nite Light / John Velazquez / 4-1
  4. Cloudy’s Knight / Rosemary Homeister, Jr. / 8-1
  5. Father Time (GB) / Eddie Ahern / 3-1
  6. Mastery (GB) / Lanfranco Dettori / 9-5
  7. Sir Dave / Joel Rosario / 20-1
  8. Eldaafer / Rafael Bejarano / 30-1
  9. Man of Iron / John Murtagh / 8-1
  10. Gangbuster / Kent Desormeaux / 30-1

No standouts in the field for the second running of the Marathon. Last year’s winner, Muhannak, hasn’t won since that race — in fact he’s finished out of the money in eight straight races. The smart money will probably go (deservedly) to Mastery, winner of the St. Leger and Derby Italiano earlier this year. Other European horses to keep an eye on are Man of Iron and Father Time, but watching the St. Leger makes me think this race is Mastery’s to lose. Nite Light (Turfway Park Fall Championship), Eldaafer (Brooklyn Handicap), and Gangbuster (Fort Harrod Stakes) are the only North American horses to have had any impact as dirt/synth stayers this year, while Cloudy’s Knight is more proven on turf. I pick Nite Light to have the best shot of overcoming the Europeans here — if he wins, he will vault to the lead in the Stayer Award standings (he current has 8 points).

For more details check out Lisa Grimm’s Marathon Division blog, a recent discovery that I’ve been remiss in not noting before now.

Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Turf

Saturday, November 7, 2009 — $3,000,000 — 3yo+ — 1 1/2 Miles

 PP.  Horse / Jockey / Odds

  1. Telling / Javier Castellano / 20-1
  2. Conduit (IRE) / Ryan Moore / 7-5
  3. Red Rocks (IRE) / Julien Leparoux / 20-1
  4. Allegre / John Velazquez / 50-1
  5. Dar Re Mi (GB) / Lanfranco Dettori / 3-1
  6. Presious Passion / Elvis Trujillo / 4-1
  7. Spanish Moon / Kieren Fallon / 5-2
  8. Monzante / Rafael Bejarano / 30-1

Past winners Conduit (2008) and Red Rocks (2006) will try to repeat as winners of the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Conduit has been installed as the morning-line favourite, while Red Rocks must be considered an outsider. Presious Passion is probably the class among the North American runners here, and has won at this distance in the past. Telling is the only entry with any chance of making any impact in the Stayer Award standings, and he is considered another outsider.

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What do you think?

  1. TIME FORM RATINGS for turf
    144 CONDUIT
    141 DAR RE MI
    137 SPANISH MOON
    135 PRESIOUS PASSION
    133 TELLING
    130 RED RODKS
    128 MONZANTE
    125 ALLEGRE

    — Dr. T. Yatcak · Nov 6, 10:11 AM · #

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