"Qwik pix" for the Derby · 1.05.10

It’s late, but I’ve finally had a chance to go over the PPs and do my pace calculations for the Kentucky Derby tomorrow.

I’m guessing that a killer early pace will be set by some combination of Homeboykris, Line of David, and/or Convergence, possibly joined by Devil May Care and Super Saver. Despite his front-running style, according to my calculations Sidney’s Candy doesn’t have the early speed to keep up with these — this will also leave him hanging to the outside from Post 20. Without an easy lead to work with, I don’t think he’ll be a factor.

Of the early horses, only Line of David has shown enough late speed to maybe survive that early pace. As the front-runners burn out, look for the horses with both the sustained/closer running style and the high final fraction ratings to support it: Lookin’ At Lucky, American Lion, and Ice Box. American Lion’s Derby may have been more impressive than the slow time indicated — he held off a strong challenge in the stretch, and the high DRF variant suggests that the track was dead slow that day. Lookin’ At Lucky earned both his best final fraction rating and overall pace figure in the Santa Anita Derby despite a horrible trip — plus he proved himself on dirt in the Rebel Stakes. Finally, Ice Box looks like a classic deep closer, which style normally has little success on Derby Day — but track conditions figure to be similar to last year, which featured Mine That Bird’s 50-1 come-from-the-clouds shocker.

My picks (no particular order): Lookin’ At Lucky / Ice Box / Line of David.

Update: Bo-rail strikes again.

Super Saver gives trainer Todd Pletcher his first Derby win, and jockey Calvin Borel’s third win in four years. Ice Box rallied furiously (as I expected) to finish second — if he hadn’t been steadied three times during the race, including twice in the stretch, he just might have caught the winner. Paddy O’Prado was third. Favoured Lookin’ At Lucky got slammed twice at the start, and did well to recover to finish sixth. Line of David was indeed up among the leaders, and then stopped cold. Sidney’s Candy did the same — I thought he was hurt, he dropped back so quickly approaching the quarter-pole to end up 18th.

At least everybody came home safe.

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What do you think?

  1. BRUTAL trip for the favorite reminded me of Came Home a few years ago who was literally bullied the entire trip while 4 to 5 wide. You need talent, seasoning, stamina and most of all LUCK to win this race as history has shown…Native Dancer.

    — Dr. T. Yatcak · May 2, 12:20 PM · #

  2. Thinking about you when I read the following in the DRF under title of “Evaluating the works inside out:“Line of David: he had the misfortune of catching a wet track for his final Derby work, and it was obvious he wanted no part of the slop, falling apart very badly down the stretch after showing some early zip.”

    — Dr. T. Yatcak · May 3, 09:12 AM · #

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