Stayers' Watch: San Luis Rey Handicap · 21.03.08

Tomorrow (March 22) marks the 57th running of the San Luis Rey Handicap (gr. IIT): 1 1/2 miles on the Santa Anita “El Camino Real” turf course.

PP, Horse, Weight (lbs.), Jockey
1. Obrigado (FR), 116, Corey S. Nakatani
2. Baby First (FR), 112, Joseph Talamo
3. Fitz Flag (ARG), 113, G. F. Almeida
4. On the Acorn (GB), 116, Victor Espinoza
5. Porfido (CHI), 114, David R. Flores
6. Warning Zone (VA), 114, Garrett K. Gomez
7. Boule d’Or (IRE), 112, Tyler Baze

On the Acorn looks to be the class of the field. The 7-year-old gelding has the best overall record as a stayer, winning three out of his last five, including the San Juan Capistrano and the Jim Murray Memorial handicaps last spring. He has by far the best average speed figure over his last three races (a shade under 100). In his last start, the San Luis Obispo Handicap on February 23, On the Acorn (coming off a nine-month layoff) trailed most of the field before finding his stride on the far turn and rallied strongly to finish third. That race was probably just what he needed to get back into racing shape. The winner that day, Spring House, is entered in the $5 million Dubai Sheema Classic (UAE-I) on March 29.

Of the others, expect Porfido to set the early pace, just as he did in the San Luis Obispo, but fade down the stretch again. Obrigado won the Obispo last year, but has lost seven straight since. Baby First is the only other horse to win at this distance — but that was in September 2006 at Chantilly in France, so he has no recent form. Warning Zone and Fitz Flag has shown little or nothing in recent outings.

Finally, Boule d’Or boasts a "crushing" win in his last race — an optional claiming race against non-winners of two races, at 1 1/4 miles. While he did finish strongly in that race while earning a speed figure of 95, he is taking a big jump in class. He’ll likely contest the early pace with Porfido — if he can last the extra quarter-mile, he might be up there at the finish.

My picks: On the Acorn / Boule d’Or

Update (March 22):

Boule d'Or    $10.00    $5.40    $4.60
Porfido                 $6.20    $5.00
Warning Zone                     $6.80

Porfido and Warning Zone set a leisurely early pace through the first half-mile. Boule d’Or took over on the clubhouse turn, stretched his lead to over 10 lengths along the backstretch, and held on as he tired badly in the stretch to finish 3/4 lengths in front in a respectable 2:25.48. On the Acorn fell far back, had nothing to give in the stretch, and finished sixth in a seven horse field. Betting $2 on both my picks to win would still have allowed me to finish $6 ahead, which makes up for over-estimating On the Acorn so badly and (almost) dismissing Boule d’Or.

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