Stayers' Watch: Tokyo City Handicap · 28.03.08

Tomorrow’s $100,000 Tokyo City Handicap (gr. III) will be run for the first time at 1 1/2 miles, which makes it the third graded stayers’ race of the year. However, it is the first to be run off the turf — Santa Anita’s main synthetic track. As such, it is the first of the new series of distance races leading up to the inaugural Breeders’ Cup Dirt “Marathon”.

Of the seven entries, Zappa (named after Frank, perhaps?) is the high-weight at 116 pounds and will likely be the favourite — however, his speed figures max out at only 100 (average 94) and he’s never raced at this distance. Church Service, by contrast, boasts the highest speed figures in the field (106 and 104, the latter earned in a strong second-place finish in the gr. II San Luis Obispo), has run well at 1 1/2 miles, and will carry only 112 pounds; also, his final fraction rating in his last middle-distance race in January was 101, which bodes well for stretching out in the Tokyo City. Big Booster (115 pounds) earned an even higher FFR (103) in the gr. II San Antonio Handicap in January, finishing fourth; his highest speed figure is 103. Rocket Legs (114 pounds) is the only horse besides Church Service to have won at this distance: his maiden win at Kentucky Downs last year.

Zappa, Plug Me In, and Niagara Causeway are all early/presser types, and will likely set the pace and burn each other out. This will benefit strong closers Church Service and Big Booster, and possibly the presser Rocket Legs.

My picks: Church Service / Big Booster

Update (March 31):

Niagara Causeway    $20.80    $10.20    $6.00
Church Service                 $6.00    $3.80
Big Booster                             $4.00

I was right about Niagara Causeway — he pressed the early pace behind Plug Me In, and took over as the latter faded back to last. I was also right that Church Service and Big Booster would close strongly. On the other hand, Zappa showed little, racing mid-pack all the way. And I didn’t expect Niagara Causeway to last and then hold on as gamely as he did, finishing a nose in front of Church Service, with Big Booster just 3/4-length behind. Final running time: 2:29.

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