Stayers' Watch: Pan American Handicap · 4.04.08

Eight horses will run tomorrow in the $150,000, 1 1/2 mile, Pan American Handicap (gr. IIIT) at Gulfstream Park:

PP. Horse, Age, Jockey, Weight
1. Drilling for Oil (KY), 5, Manoel R. Cruz, 115
2. Notice Me Now (FL), 4, Jose Alberto Rivera II, 114
3. Ascertain (IRE), 7, Manueal Aguilar, 115
4. Fracas (IRE), 6, Eddie Castro, 116
5. Interpatation (KY), 6, Tom G. Turner, 114
6. Dave (KY), 7, A.R. Napravnik, 117
7. French Vintage (FL), 4, Junior Alvarado, 116
8. Presious Passion (FL), 5, Ariel Smith, 117

It’s a pretty evenly-matched field. Barclay Tagg (perhaps best-known as the trainer of Funny Cide) has two horses here, Fracas and Dave. Fracas raced most of the past two years in Ireland, running well while carrying on average some 20 pounds more than he is assigned in the Pan Am. In his last start, at 1 1/8 miles, he rallied from last to finish a strong fourth; this is his second start after a long layoff, so he should improve, and the extra distance should help him. Dave ("Dave? Dave’s not here!") is coming off a 6-week layoff, and has never won at this distance. His speed figures are OK but not the best here, and neither are his final fraction ratings. He is the co-high weight, and the Racing Form rates him as a favourite, but I think he’s over-rated.

Of the others, Drilling for Oil and Ascertain have both won at this distance, with the best speed figures — however, both have ordinary FFRs. Presious Passion has also won at 12 furlongs. He tends to alternate good and poor performances — he finished 11th in his last race, beaten by eight lengths, so is due for a good performance. French Vintage has no form at this distance, and hasn’t won in 10 races. On the other hand, he has two thirds and a fourth at 1 3/8 miles — in the latter race, the gr. IIT Mac Diarmida Handicap, he earned a 107 speed figure, matching Drilling for Oil’s best, and rallied from 10th place down the stretch while running the last 3/8 in :35. He also has the best FFRs at middle distances, all earned at Gulfstream earlier this year. If his form holds, the extra distance of the Pan American can only benefit him.

My picks: Fracas / French Vintage

Update (April 5):

Presious Passion    42.60    12.00    6.60
Drilling for Oil              4.20    3.40
Interpatation                         9.00

Oops. Presious Passion followed his alternating pattern, as I described yesterday, and wired the field. Opening up 15 lengths at one point, posting even fractions, he hung on to win by 1 1/2, stopping the clock in 2:26.15. Drilling for Oil lived up to his past speed figures, and Interpatation had perhaps his best performance at this distance. Of my picks, French Vintage ran last for most of the race, but closed to finish a strong fourth, while Fracas tracked the pace, made a move on the final turn, but faltered and was eventually vanned off the track. At least I was right about Dave….

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