Stayers' Watch: San Juan Capistrano Invitational Handicap · 18.04.08

Back in the day, the San Juan Capistrano Invitational Handicap was among the top 2-3 turf races in North America. As recently as five years ago it was still ranked as a Gr. I race. Now, however, it is down to a Gr. II level, with a mere $250,000 purse, and the winners of the last two Santa Anita turf stayers’ races, Spring House and Boule d’Or, decided to pass in favour of less-demanding races. Santa Anita officials hope to boost both the purse and the graded status for next year — fortunately, there’s been no talk of shortening it from 1 3/4 miles (yet).

PP. Horse, Weight, Jockey
1. On the Acorn (GB), 115, Victor Espinoza
2. Fitz Flag (ARG), 112, G. F. Almeida
3. Shamdinan (FR), 118, Jon K. Court
4. Porfido (CHI), 115, David R. Flores
5. Big Booster (KY), 114, Rafael Bejarano
6. Victorian Prince (IRE), 111, Joseph Talamo
7. Plug Me In (KY), 113, Alonso Quinonez
8. Warning Zone (VA), 114, Mike E. Smith

Porfido, On The Acorn, and Shamdinan seem to be the class of the field. However, each displays significant negative factors, as well. Shamdinan looks good at first glance — he is the high-weight, and seems to be favoured by both the Daily Racing Form and The Blood-Horse. However, he has never won a stayers’ race (defined as 1 1/2m or longer); he tired badly in his last race, after a long layoff; and he’s now coming off another long break. Also, as a European horse, I’m suspicious of his ability to handle the sharp turns at Santa Anita.

Porfido has improved in his last two races, the San Luis Obispo and the San Luis Rey Handicaps, pressing the pace in both and earning a 106 BSF while finishing second in the latter. However, like Shamdinan he has not won at a distance.

On The Acorn is the defending champion in the San Juan Capistrano, and has the best record as a stayer, consistently winning or finishing in the money at this level — until his last race. He was a disappointing 6th as the favourite in the San Luis Rey, but taking into account his previous record I am tempted to throw out that lacklustre effort.

Of the others, Warning Zone ran well in the San Luis Rey, nosed out by Porfido for second. A similar effort might be enough this time, but that performance was so far above his previous form that I am suspicious. Victorian Prince won an optional claimer at this distance two weeks ago, but is taking a big jump in class here.

My picks: Porfido / On The Acorn

Update (21 April): Big Booster finally picks up his first graded win

Big Booster    16.00    8.60    4.60
Warning Zone            5.20    3.20
Porfido                         3.00

Big Booster followed up his strong 3rd-place finish in the Tokyo City Handicap with a score in the longest graded race in North America. He made a big move from the back of the pack with 1/4-mile to go and went on to win handily. I discounted that win in the Tokyo City — maybe a move from synthetic to grass is an angle to watch in the future. Of my two picks, Porfido just edged On The Acorn for the show — based on the chart it looks like I wasn’t the only one who liked them, so that’s some (cold) comfort.

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