Stayers' Watch: Fifth Third Elkhorn Stakes · 25.04.08

The featured race on the final day of Keeneland’s spring meet is tomorrow’s Fifth Third Elkhorn Stakes (1 1/2m, Gr. 2(T), $200,000-added).

PP, Horse, Weight, Jockey
1. French Vintage, 118, Edgar Prado
2. Stream of Gold, 122, Eddie Castro
3. Embossed, 118, Robby Albarado
4. Pellegrino, 118. Jesus Lopez Castanon
5. Dancing Forever, 118, Rene Douglas
6. True Cause, 118, John Velazquez
7. Brass Hat, 118, Willie Martinez
8. Transduction Gold, 120, James Graham
9. Bee Charmer, 118, Shaun Bridgmohan
10. Silverfoot, 118, Jamie Theriot
11. Drilling for Oil, 120, Kent Desormeaux
12. Cougar Bay, 118, Eibar Coa
AE. Lauro, 118, Eduardo Pedroza

Stream of Gold looks to be the class of the field, having won the Gr. 2 Mac Diarmida Handicap at Gulfstream Park last month in a record time for the 1 3/8m distance. He boasts by far the best speed figures over his last few races, and comes off a sharp 5f workout last week. His one weak spot is that he has never won at 1 1/2m, although he can boast two 2nds and a 4th in three races at that distance last year.

Of the others, True Cause and Cougar Bay ran well to finish 2nd and 3rd, respectively, behind Stream of Gold in the Mac Diarmida. Cougar Bay has better average speed figures in his last three races, and has been improving steadily against higher-class company.

The field is limited to twelve horses. If the German horse Lauro draws in (based on graded stakes wins or turf earnings) he has a good chance, as he has won at this distance against high-class company in Europe. However, the Elkhorn would be Lauro’s first start in over a year, and I am suspicious of his ability to handle the relatively sharp turns of a North American track after racing all his life over the wide sweeping courses of Europe.

My picks: Stream of Gold / Cougar Bay

Update (April 28): Missed again. It didn’t help my cause when Cougar Bay was scratched. In the end, Dancing Forever came through in the stretch to win by a length in 2:29.74. Drilling for Oil led most of the way and finished second, 2 1/2 lengths in front of Brass Hat. My other pick (and pre-race favourite), Stream of Gold, challenged briefly in the stretch, then weakened to fourth.

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