Derby afterthoughts · 11 days ago
- As I wrote on Twitter, God gave us VCRs so that we can fast-forward through Bob Costas.
- To those complaining that Trinniberg had no business in this field, and that his early pressure probably cost Bodemeister the race: shut up and read your Derby history. Past Derbies are full of sprinters whose owners thought, “What the hell, if you don’t run you can’t win, and maybe he really will go the distance or earn some purse money”. Exhibit A: Shecky Greene.
- Somebody give Laffit Pincay III a job on a major network — the guy is well-spoken and photogenic as hell.
- Overall, since the last time I wrote about it, Derby TV coverage has improved somewhat. Yes, it still suffers from an excess of celebrities, dimwitted commentary, and Costas. But the female reporter witnessing the birth of a Thoroughbred foal was a cute piece. More importantly, Tom Hammond, Gary Stevens, and Randy Moss stayed on the subject (the Derby is a horse race, folks, not a celebrity-fest) and kept the inanity to a minimum. I especially liked Stevens’ computer-simulated race preview (even if he did pick Union Rags as the winner).
- There’s one thing that is being overlooked in all the (well-deserved) praise being heaped on winning jockey Mario Gutierrez: the possible inherent advantage for riders switching from a bull-ring to a 1-mile oval. This was brought to my attention last year in conversation with an ex-jockey at Hastings. The theory is that jockeys who are initially successful at small courses like Hastings, as Mario was, can find even more success on a standard-sized track. Racing around bull-rings, with their tight turns and short straights, requires especially quick thinking and reflexes and sound tactics. On larger courses, those jockeys suddenly have a lot more space and time during races, but they still have those short-course reflexes and tactics, giving them an edge over the local riders. Who knows if this is a valid theory, but it’s food for thought at least.
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Kentucky Derby 2012 · 15 days ago
So after several days of handicapping — involving pace analysis, consideration of speed figures, recent form, jockeys, pedigrees, equine athletic psychology, and to be honest a fair bit of guesswork and wishful thinking — here are my picks for this year’s Kentucky Derby.
Everybody seems so high on Bodemeister, but his lack of seasoning, relatively low pace figures, and the likelihhod that he will “bounce” after his big effort in the Arkansas Derby, make him a toss-out. Daddy Long Legs is another toss, mainly because he drew the dreaded 1-hole, the kiss of death in a 20-horse Derby field. Rumours of hoof issues with Creative Cause make him questionable as well. I refuse to consider the so-called “wise guy” hose, Daddy Nose Best, because on basic principle I refuse to back a horse whose owners gave him such a stoopid name. Trinniberg should stay in the sprints. Most of the other horses I tossed for similar reasons, or simply because they look too slow.
Hansen had surprisingly good pace figures in his loss in the Bluegrass Stakes, and he showed that he doesn’t always need the lead when he won the Gotham. However, his rank behaviour in training this week, and the big question of whether he can rate when faced with early speed from Trinniberg and Bodemeister force me, reluctantly, to pass on him for this race. I still like him, however — in fact, I think Hansen has the potential to become the most exciting pure miler since Dr. Fager (you read it here first, folks!). In fact, I would not be surprised if he proves me wrong tomorrow.
Finally, my picks, in no particular order:
- Dullahan (best pace figures in the field, from his win in the Bluegrass, and has perhaps improved the most of all the major contenders since last year)
- I’ll Have Another (good pace figures, especially from his gutty win in the Santa Anita Derby — and being ridden by former leading Hastings jockey Mario Gutierrez makes him, admittedly, a somewhat sentimental choice)
- Take Charge Indy (not the best pace figures, but having Calvin Borel as his jockey automatically makes him a major contender)
- Union Rags (I’ve liked this horse since last year — his pace figures are not the tops, but I suspect he wasn’t cranked for the Florida Derby, and from all reports he looks the best of all the Derby horses this week — also, if it rains tomorrow as expected, he showed last year at Saratoga that he can handle the slop and win big)
Go ahead, do what you want with them, or ignore them. Most important of all, let’s hope they all come home safe and sound.
UPDATE: Not bad – two of my picks finished first and third, Hansen was rank as I expected but was still part of the mix until just past the quarter pole, but Bodemeister did far better than I expected. Oh, and finally, GO MARIO!
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Stayers' Watch - Stayers at Keeneland · 15 days ago
Bewitch Stakes (Gr. IIIT)
- Upperline
- Woodford Belle
- Senada
Time (1 1/2 miles): 2:33.28
Course: firm
Elkhorn Stakes (Gr. IIT)
- Point of Entry
- Tahoe Lake
- Simmard
Time (1 1/2 miles): 2:29.45
Course: firm
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Stayers' Watch: San Juan Capistrano Handicap · 26 days ago
Bourbon Bay emphasized his return to the top-flight of North American turf horses with the narrowest of victories in Sunday’s San Juan Capistrano Handicap (Gr. IIT), the traditional finale to the Santa Anita racing season.
The 2010 Unofficial Champion Stayer, coming off his win in last month’s San Luis Rey Stakes, looked hopelessly beaten for much of the race. Half-way through the “about 1 3/4 mile ‘Capistrano, he trailed the lead by over 11 lengths, as Hog’s Hollow and then Harrods Creek set a moderate pace. Although he began making up ground coming into the final turn, at the quarter-pole Bourbon Bay still trailed by more than four lengths, and the gap was not significantly reduced by the eighth-pole, as Eagle Poise took the lead. But the six-year-old gelding, urged on by jockey Joel Rosario, continued to close ground on Eagle Poise, who looked like the winner until literally the final stride.
It was almost certainly the race’s closest finish since 1966, when George Royal helped Johnny Longden end his career with a flourish. At the wire, it was Bourbon Bay by what was officially declared a nose. In fact, the winning margin was about an inch — as you can see from the photo finish. Harrods Creek finished third behind Eagle Poise. Final time on “firm” turf: 2:45.70.
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Stayers' Watch - Spring 2012 omnibus edition · 32 days ago
Better late than never, Left Coast Racing returns with Stayers’ Watch for 2012 — reporting on North American stayers’ races and the horses that run in them, for those who agree that stamina is equally as important as speed to the modern Thoroughbred.
Pan American Stakes (Gr. IIT) — 24 March, Gulfstream Park
- Newsdad
- Hailstone
- Simmard
Time (1 1/2 miles): 2:24.93. Course: firm.
Tokyo City Cup (Gr. III) — 24 March, Santa Anita
- Dynamic Host
- Dhaamer
- Skipshot
Time (1 1/2 miles): 2:30.22. Track: fast
San Luis Rey Stakes (Gr. IIT) — 25 March, Santa Anita
- Bourbon Bay
- Slim Shadey
- Hog’s Hollow
Time (1 1/2 miles): 2:25.78. Course: firm.
(No San Luis Obispo Handicap this year – WTF Santa Anita?)
Orchid Stakes (Gr. IIIT) — 31 March, Gulfstream Park
- Hit It Rich
- Aqsaam
- Keertana
Time (1 1/2 miles): 2:28.06. Course: firm.
